特朗普税制改革取向及其影响

An Analysis of Donald Trump's Proposed Tax Reform and Its Impacts on China

本文围绕特朗普的税改理念与建议,分析美国税制改革的价值取向以及可能产生的影响,认为:未来特朗普税改会受到美国政治预算制度、财政承受能力、各国税收合作体制三重制约,效力大打折扣,但却会在国际范围内产生示范效应,导致各国竞相降低税率;美国降低税率还将严重影响国际资本流动规模与趋势,预计海外资本将加剧回流美国;美国治理跨国公司"税收倒置"难题将影响我国吸引外商投资和我国对美投资进程。基于以上分析,建议我国加大吸引外资政策优惠力度,并继续加速推进中美投资保护协议谈签。

This paper analyzes the trends and potentially probable international impacts of the U.S. tax reform in accordance with Donald Trump＇s idea and proposals raised in his presidential campaign. It is concluded that although Trump＇s proposed tax reforms are subject to a triple-condition of routine budget system, fiscal affordability and demands of international cooperation, its global model impacts will make the main international partners decrease tax rate simultaneously. Lower tax rates of Donald Trump will change current propensities and scales of international capital movements, and it is predicted that foreign capitals will be boosted to flow into the America upon his tax cuts. China＇s absorbing of foreign FDI will be hampered by Donald Trump Administration＇s governance of American multinational＇s tax inversion, while the country＇s strategies to put investment into the U.S. face a new tax condition. Finally, based upon the above analysis, the paper proposes that China needs to renew its foreign investment policy credits, and to appeal to boosting the Sino-U.S. bilateral investment agreement negotiation.