京津冀“两极”的产业结构升级和人力资本水平互动关系比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Interaction between Industrial Structure Upgrading and Human Capital in the "Two Poles" of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

北京和河北作为京津冀区域中的"两极",其产业结构和人力资本水平相去甚远,在协同发展大背景下,研究二者关系,对于整个区域的人力资本功能的释放和产业结构的升级有很重要的作用。论文选取1995年—2013年河北省和北京市居民平均受教育年限和产业结构高级化指数的相关数据,构建VAR模型,并且检验证明了两地的人力资本水平和产业结构升级之间的确存在着互动关系,但是作用大小却不相同。河北省相比于北京地区人力资本水平基础薄弱,并且对于产业结构升级的作用不甚明显,但产业结构升级对于人力资本水平的提升作用长期来看比较明显,并且基于这一结论提出了相关政策建议。

This paper selected the data of the average years of education and the index of industrial structure upgrading of Hebei province and Beijing and construct the VAR model,the Johansen co-integration test,impulse response analysis,variance decomposition and Granger causality and proved that level of human capital in Hebei province is weak compared to the level of human capital in Beijing,and the role of the upgrading of industrial structure is not obvious,the level of human capital is not high,but the effect of upgrading of industrial structure to the promotion of the human capital in the long term is more obvious. At last based on this conclusion the paper put forward the relevant policy recommendations.