基于多元线性回归模型的武汉市水资源承载力研究

Research on water resources bearing capacity of Wuhan based on multivariate linear regression model

为探讨武汉市水资源承载力是否能适应其经济发展的要求,根据城市水资源承载力的理论研究,运用主成分分析法和多元线性回归模型,分析影响武汉市水资源承载力的驱动因素,预测从2015年到2020年的年需水量。结果表明,武汉市万元GDP用水量和万元工业增加值用水量两者逐年下降,其用水效率有所提高,水资源承载力尚能满足其当前的经济发展的需求,然而从其长远发展来看,如何提高水资源承载力仍是武汉市亟需解决重要问题。

In order to discuss whether the water resources bearing capacity of Wuhan City can meet the needs of Wuhan economic development,based on the theoretical study of the city water resources bearing capacity,using principal component analysis（ PCA） and multiple linear regression model,analyzing the driving factors of the water resources bearing capacity in Wuhan City,it is predicted the water demand from 2015- 2020 year. The results show that the water consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP and water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value-added by industry in Wuhan City dropped year by year. It means that the efficiency of water use has improved,and water resources bearing capacity can just meet the needs of the present economic development. However,from the point of the long-term development,how to improve the water resources bearing force is still an urgent problem that Wuhan City need to solve.