“二孩”生育政策的经济效应分析——供给与需求的视角

The Economic Effect Analysis of Two-child Policy:The Perspective of Supply and Demand

供给面看,实施"二孩"政策会直接扩大人口规模、增加未来劳动力供给,短期引起家庭储蓄水平降低;而长期则会对宏观储蓄水平产生积极作用,且年轻的人口结构有利于我国创新能力的提高。需求面看,全面放开"二孩"会对消费产生拉动作用,但因住房支出的挤压,效果或许有限;投资会加速,但却可能加剧其与消费的比例失衡;人口变动一定程度上会延长我国基于人口红利的出口比较优势。

On the supply side,the implementation of Two-child policy will directly expand the scale of populationand increase future workforce and lead to lower household savings in the short-term. It will produce active effect tothe macro level of savings in the long run. Besides,the younger population structure is conducive to improve the in-novation ability in our country. On the demand side,universal Two-child can produce stimulating effect on con-sumption. However,due to the extrusion of housing expenditure,the effect may be limited;investment will be accel-erated,which may aggravate the imbalance between investment and consumption;The variation in population willextend the duration of export comparative advantage on a certain degree which based on demographic dividend.