福建西部地区林火发生格局及驱动因子分析

Investigations on spatial distribution and driving factors of forest fire in western Fujian

福建省西部地区森林覆盖率高,且是中国的林火高发区之一,但关于该地区的林火发生格局和预测预报的研究还不完善。以2000—2010年福建林火数据为基础,运用Ripley's K-function和逻辑斯蒂回归模型,综合考虑地形、气象条件、植被条件及人口密度4类因素,对福建西部地区林火分布格局及主要影响因子进行综合分析并建立预测模型。结果表明:福建西部地区2000—2010年间林火发生主要为聚集分布;海拔、日平均气温、日平均相对湿度、日降水、植被覆盖度、人口密度6个因子是福建西部地区林火发生的主要驱动因子;模型预测准确率接近70%且模型内自变量均显著。林火风险概率和火险等级显示,福建西部地区林火发生主要集中在西北部和中部地区。

Western Fujian has high forest coverage rate and fire frequency. However,the studies regarding to the spatial distribution and prediction model of forest fire in Fujian are relatively rare. Fire dataset from 2000 to 2010,combining with topography,climate,vegetation and population density factors were used to analyze the spatial distribution and driving factors,furthermore,to establish fire prediction model based on Ripley’s K-function and logistic regression model. The results showed that forest fires in the west of Fujian were clustered in space during 2000 to 2010. In addition, elevation, daily average temperature,daily average relative humidity,daily precipitation,fractional vegetation cover,density of population,etc were identified as main driving factors for forest fire in the western Fujian. The model prediction accuracy is close to 70% with the significantly independent variables. According to forest fire risk probability and fire danger class,westhern Fujian forest fires occurred mainly concentrated in the northwestern and central regions.