资本循环与经济危机:来自美国(1959—2012年)的经验

Capital Cycle and Economic Crisis: from the Experience of USA(1959-2012)

与韦斯科夫提出的综合性经济危机理论不同,资本主义的经济危机是与资本循环相联系的综合性经济危机。与资本循环直接相关的实现危机和信用危机是经济危机的具体表现形式,资本循环时间与其他因素一起共同影响企业的利润率下降是导致经济危机产生的主要原因之一。以带有时间滞后项的资本循环模型为基础,以美国的增长率和利润率为核心展开了实证检验,实证结果表明:在非金融部门和制造业部门中"剥削率"和"可变资本占总资本比例"的增加对经济增长率具有正的影响,"资本循环时间"的增加不利于增长率的提高;"可变资本占总资本的比例"和"剥削率"的增加有利于企业部门(非金融部门和制造业部门)经济利润率的增加,而资本循环时间越短,越有利于提高经济利润率。

Different from Weisskopf＇s comprehensive economic crisis theory, the economic crisis of capitalism is a kind of comprehensive economic crisis associating with capital cycle. The crisis and credit crisis are the specific forms that are directly related to the capital cycle,while the capital cycle time as well as other factors jointly affect the falling rate of the enterprises＇ profit,being regarded as one of the leading causes about the economic crisis. Based on the time lag capital cycle model,taking the USA＇s growth and profitability as the core,an empirical test is carried out. And the results indicate that：in the non-financial department and manufacturing department, the increase in the ＂exploitation rate＂ and ＂ratio of variable capital to the total＂ has a positive effect on economic growth, however, the increase in ＂the capital cycle time＂ is not conducive to the growth rate; the increase in the ＂exploitation rate＂ and ＂ratio of variable capital to the total＂ favors the growth of economic profitability rate in the department（only in the non-financial department and manufacturing department）,moreover,the shorter the capital cycle time is,the higher the profitability rate will be.