计及极端环境因素的电网安全预警logistic模型研究

Research on the logistic model of power grid security warning considering the extreme environmental factors

针对新疆极端环境对电网稳定带来的不安全隐患,在分析影响新疆电网事故的极端环境要素基础上,结合统计近几年新疆吐哈地区的相关电力数据及相应气象数据,进行因子分析和logistic回归计算,建立计及新疆大温差、风电高比例入网、强风及沙尘等新疆极端环境因素的电网安全预警logistic模型。并以2015年电力事故及气象数据为例,对模型进行验证,结果表明该模型能较准确地表达该地区极端环境与电力事故间的关系,具有实际应用意义。

The unsafe hazards caused by extreme environments in Xinjiang bring hidden trouble to the stability of power system security. Based on the analysis of the extreme environment elements which influences Xinjiang power grid,factor analysis and logistic regression calculation was carried out combined with statistics in recent years of power related data and the relevant meteorological data in Turan-Hami Area. And then a new logistic model of grid security early warning,considering large temperature difference,high proportion of wind power in network,strong winds and dust extreme environment factors in Xinjiang,was set up. The model was verified by the case of power accident and meteorological data in2015. The results show that the model could express the relationship between the extreme environmentand the electric power accident in this area,which is practical significance.