利润率下降与中国经济新常态

The Falling Rate of Profit and the New Normal of Chinese Economy

经济增长速度下滑是中国经济新常态最明显的特点,其成因值得认真探讨。从马克思主义政治经济学的视角出发,利用马克思的理论对经济危机与利润率下降之间的关系进行论述,构建经济增长率与资本有机构成(或剩余价值率)、储蓄率、利润率之间的数量关系,定性分析发现,在其他变量不变的情况下,经济增长率与利润率呈现正相关关系。构建三个利润率指标,分析1998—2014年中国的经济增长率与利润率的关系,发现2007年以后资本有机构成的快速上升和剩余价值率的相对下降,导致利润率的快速下降,而且利润率与经济增长率的变化趋势高度一致,因此可以断定利润率下降是中国经济增长率下降的主要原因。通过辽宁和重庆两地经济增长率的对比分析揭示,在2010年之后出现一高一低分化的结果是两者利润率和资本有机构成的内在差异导致的。资本的破坏能够降低资本有机构成、提高利润率,进而能使经济增长率得以恢复。以何种方式进行资本破坏,是主动破坏还是被动破坏,这是中国供给侧改革可以参考的一个视角。

The declining rate of economic growth is the most significant feature of the new normal of Chinese economy. What factors lead to the declining rate of economic growth？ The existing literature does not give a satisfactory answer. Starting from the Marxist political economics, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic crisis and the falling rate of profit, and then builds the three profitability indicators. We study the relationship beyween China＇s economic growth and the profit rate from 1998 to 2014, and find that the rapid rise of the organic composition of capital and the decline of the rate of surplus value lead to rapid decline of profit rate after 2007. In this process, the change of profit rate is highly consistent with the economic growth rate. So we can conclude that the falling rate of profit is the main cause behind the decline of China＇s economic growth. At the same time, after 2010 the high differentiation of Liaoning and Chongqing in economic growth is due to the intrinsic differences between their profit rates and the organic composition of capital. And the destruction of capital can reduce the organic composition of capital, improve the rate of profit, and thus restore the rate of economic growth.