VMS下驾驶员路径选择行为分析与建模

An Analysis and Modeling for Route Choice of Drivers Response to Variable Message Signs

为了实现交通流在路网中的合理分配,可变信息板(VMS)通过发布动态交通信息来引导驾驶员选择最合理路径。通过构造基于陈述偏好调查(SP调查)的诱导信息下驾驶员路径选择行为的有序多分类Logit模型,分析各因素对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响。分析结果表明,年龄、出行距离、可选路径、VMS信任度、改变路径频率对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响较大。在驾驶员个人属性中,年龄对驾驶员的路径选择行为影响最大;在出行属性中,驾驶员对出行距离和可选路径最为敏感;在对VMS的认知和服从属性中,驾驶员对VMS信任度越高,按照VMS诱导信息改变出行路径的概率越大;改变路径频率越高的驾驶员,越易改变出行路径。

In order to achieve the rational distribution of traffic flow in a road network,Variable Message Signs（VMS）can guide drivers to choose optimal route through dynamic traffic information.In this study,a mutli-category ordinal Logit model has been developed based on a stated preference survey,and the factors which have effects on drivers while choosing route under VMS condition has been analyzed.The results show that the main affecting factors are age,travel distance,travel path,degree of trust in VMS and frequency of change route.Among personal properties,age is the most effective factor.As to travelling properties,drivers are sensitive to travel distance and travel path.In compliant properties towards VMS,higher degree of trust in VMS brings more probability when drivers choose to switch path according to guidance information provided by VMS;drivers with high frequency of changing route are more likely to switch path.