矿业城市资源环境承载力的系统动力学模拟

SYSTEM DYNAMICS SIMULATION OF RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY IN MINING CITIES

为评估矿业城市资源环境承载力,文章以系统动力学为基础,构建了包含矿产资源开发子系统、生态环境子系统和社会经济发展子系统的模型。在此基础上,结合唐山市的特点,以2001—2014年的数据为基础,测算了模型中各个变量之间的关系,并对未来的发展情境做了预测。研究结果显示:1)随着经济的发展,唐山市第三产业产值所占的比重会不断增加,导致对煤炭需求量下降,因此唐山市的煤炭产量会不断下降,尤其是在今后的30年下降较快,而后趋于平稳,平稳的产量在每年4 000万t左右;2)随着勘探投资的增加,新增矿产资源储量会逐步增多,因此剩余矿产资源储量在2030年左右降至最低点,而后缓慢增加。在上述两个因素的综合影响下,唐山市的矿产资源承载力也会先降后增。

In order to evaluate the resource environment carrying capacity in mining cities,this paper applies system dynamics to establish an evaluation model comprised of mineral resource development sub-system,eco-environment sub-system and social economic development sub-system,which is used to measure their relation among the variables in the model by using Tangshan's 2001-2014 data and to forecast future scenario. As economy develops,Tangshan's third industry will rise at its proportion,leading to a decreasing demand of coal. Accordingly,Tangshan 's coal production will decline especially in next 30 years. After that,coal production is estimated to be stable at 40 million tons per year. As investment on exploration rises,newly-added mineral reserve will be increased with the remaining reserve falling to the bottom in 2030,and slowly rising after then. Hence,Tangshan's mineral resource carryingcapacity will first decline and rise.