摘要
文章采用"系统动力学"方法,构建了以水资源、人口、产业发展和页岩气4大子系统为支撑的"区域页岩气开发水资源承载力系统动力学模型",并结合美国重要页岩气地——Marcellus页岩气地的Bradford郡实证数据进行了不同情景下的仿真模拟,在此基础上总结和归纳对中国页岩气开发及相关政策制定的启示:1)在开发前需要系统分析区域人口和产业发展情况以及页岩气单井开采水资源需求量;2)在开采过程中,要逐步提高页岩气水资源的回收技术,通过制定强制性的法律法规以及相关补贴政策,提高页岩气的回流率和重新利用率,从而提高区域水资源对于页岩气开采的承载能力。
This paper uses system dynamics to establish an evaluation model of regional water carrying capacity in shale gas development based on water resource, population, industrial development and shale gas, simulates the Bradford county, Marcellus, USA＇s vital shale gas base under different scenarios, and provides references for China＇s shale gas development and policy from analyzing population, industrial development and water demand for single shale gas hole before developing, improving shale gas recovery during mining through enacted laws, regulations and allowance, increasing the reflux rate and reusing rate, and accordingly raising the carrying capacity of regional water resource on shale gas development.
作者
姜孟
李华姣
JIANG Meng LI Hua-jiao(School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resources and Environment, MLR, Beijing 100083, China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2016年第6期33-39,共7页
Resources & Industries
