摘要
以核电厂配电柜火灾为例,采用FPRA方法分析了配电柜火灾中相邻区域电缆绝缘失效概率。引入消防队现场火灾处置影响因素,对消防队到场与扑灭时间的累积分布函数进行离散化处理,确定区域样本数据,建立了配电柜火灾电缆绝缘失效事件树。结合电缆绝缘失效预测模型计算得到各火灾场景条件下的电缆绝缘失效情况,得到配电柜火灾中电缆绝缘失效发生的概率。结果表明,对于案例场景当配电柜火灾HRRmax为750kW时,电缆不会发生绝缘失效;当配电柜火灾HRRmax为1 000kW时,电缆绝缘失效概率为12.6%。
Taking the nuclear power plant power distribution cabinet fire as example, FPRA approaches was adopted to ana- lyze the failure probability of cable insulation at contiguous re- gion among distribution cabinet fire. The influential factors that fire brigade dealt with the fire in the spot were introduced. The cumulative distribution function of fire brigade＇s arriving and extinguishing time was conducted diseretization, confirming the sample statistics of areas and establishing the numbers of cable insulation failure events of distribution cabinet fire. Combining failure predicted model of cable insulation, the failure situation of cable insulation under each of fire background was calculat- ed, obtaining the probability of cable insulation failure events a- mong the distribution cabinet fires. The results showed that when the HRRmax of distribution cabinet fire in term of case sce- nario is 750 kW, the insulation failure doesn＇t happen; when the HRRmax of distribution cabinet fire is 1 000 kW, the possi- bility of cable insulation failure is 12.6 %.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第12期1748-1751,共4页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
武警部队学院中青年教师科研创新计划课题(XYCX201619)
电力火灾与安全防护安徽省重点实验室开放课题(DLHZ201603)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(1408085MKL94)
2016中国消防协会科学技术年会"青年消防学者论坛"交流论文
