青藏块体河西地区断层变形预测研究——以金塔南场地为例

Prediction of Fault Deformation in Hexi Region of Qinghai-Tibet Block:Taking Jinta South Area as an Example

采用青藏块体河西地区中具有季节性时间序列特征的金塔南场地的变形监测数据,依据单个预测模型各自的特点,选用灰色模型和灰色时序组合模型对该组数据建立预测模型。研究结果表明:灰色模型能很好地描述季节性时序的宏观发展趋势,时间序列模型能很好地描述季节性时序的周期性微观趋势。灰色时序组合模型结合了两者的优点,适用于季节性时间序列的变形分析与预测,预测结果可靠性较高。

This paper adopts the deformation monitoring data of Jinta south area in Hexi region of Qinghai-Tibet block which has the characteristics of seasonal time series.According to the characteristics of each forecast model,the combination of grey model and grey time-series model is adopted to establish the prediction model for the group of data.The results show that the grey model can be a very good description of seasonal time-series macro development trend and the time-series model is good at describing the seasonal time-series periodic micro trend.The grey time-series combination model combines these two advantages,it is suitable for the analysis and forecast of the seasonal time series deformation with high reliability.