浮动还是盯住——基于DSGE模型的最优汇率制度安排

Floating or Pegging: Optimal Exchange Rate Regime Based on DSGE Model

以开放条件下的DSGE模型作为基本模型,使用贝叶斯估计方法模拟不同汇率制度间的差异。研究发现,单独浮动汇率制度有利于本国物价水平的稳定,参考一篮子货币的汇率制度更有利于实际汇率的稳定;国内物价的波动水平超出临界值时,执行政策时政策制定者应更偏重于浮动汇率制;若当下汇率波动水平超出临界值,则其应更偏向于参考一篮子货币汇率制。

Taking DSGE as basic model,this paper uses Bayesian estimation method to find differences between exchange rate regimes. The research finds that floating exchange rate regime is good at stabling domestic price,while pegging exchange rate regime with reference to basket of currencies is good at stabling real exchange rate. If policymakers find that domestic price volatility is higher than the threshold,they may pay more attention to the floating exchange rate system. If policymakers find that the volatility of the exchange rate value is higher than the threshold,they may pay more attention to exchange rate regime with reference to basket of currencies.