考虑老化因子的单设备系统健康预测研究

Equipment Health Prognosis Based on Aging Factor Hidden Semi-Markov Model

针对传统隐半马科夫模型在故障诊断和预测应用中的不足,本篇文章在隐半马科夫模型的基础上,考虑设备的实际老化情况,设计出一种设备老化因子,并把它集成到预测模型中,识别出设备所处的健康状态,然后运用集成模型中的信息结合设备的失效率函数,设计出一种新的设备剩余寿命预测方法,最后结合案例,分析模型的有效性。

Due to the deficiency of traditional HSMM applied in fault diagnosis and prognosis, according to the deterioration of equipment,this paper presents an aging factor based on HSMM model and use this integrated model to diagnosis the health state of equipment. To predict the remaining useful life of the equipment ,hazard rate is introduced to combine with the health- state transition matrix. Finally, through a case study the performances of the HSMM with aging factors are be verified.