汇率变动是否影响了服务出口复杂度——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析

Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Service Export Sophistication:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Transnational Panel Data

本文借鉴目前国内外学术界测度服务出口复杂度的最新方法,在测算了包括中国在内的60个国家服务出口复杂度基础之上,利用2000—2013年的跨国面板数据,在有效控制人力资本、服务贸易开放度等可能影响因素后,计量检验了实际有效汇率对服务出口复杂度的影响。结论表明,虽然基于总样本检验结果显示实际有效汇率上升在一定程度上对服务出口复杂度提升具有正向影响,但结合分样本检验结果来看,这种影响主要表现在发达经济体,即实际有效汇率上升对发达经济体服务出口复杂度的提升具有显著积极影响,而对发展中经济体并不具有显著影响。此外,本文研究还发现,人力资本、服务贸易开放度以及利用外资等均对服务出口复杂度的提升具有推动作用。研究结论对于亟待大力发展服务贸易并实现"量质齐升"的中国而言,面临人民币升值的总体趋势,如何依托适当而稳健的汇率政策以助推上述目标实现,有着极为重要的实践意义和政策意涵。

By using the popular method measuring service export sophistication, this paper calculates service export sophistication of 60 countries including China. Based on which, this paper examine the relationship between real effective exchange rate and service export sophistication by utilizing cross countries panel data covering period from 2000 to 2013.Although full sam-ple regression shows that the two variables have significant positive relationship, sub-sample regression indicates this positive relationship mainly lies in developed economies, not in developing economies. Besides, result also shows that human capital, service trade open and FDI all have positive impact on service export sophistication. Under background that China pushes development service trade urgently to realize the expansion of service export as well as the increase of service export sophistication, the above conclusion has important policy implications.