天然气合作背后的中俄关系模式探析

A Study of Sino-Russian Relations: the Case of Natural Gas Cooperation

尽管中国与俄罗斯在能源领域具有较强互补性,但两国天然气合作谈判并不顺利。本文从经济社会发展、地缘政治两方面分析导致这一现象的原因,考察中俄谈判立场与行为的变化,进而得出有关中俄关系模式的初步结论:第一,经济社会发展需求是中俄天然气合作的基础,但这一共同利益的构建是个动态过程;第二,地缘政治因素对中俄天然气合作谈判既有促进作用,也有抑制作用;第三,国家—市场关系共同塑造了前述两个因素发挥作用的方式:中俄天然气合作谈判既要满足经济社会效益追求,也要符合国家地缘政治利益。由此可得出两点启示:一是中国应对当前中俄战略伙伴关系有清醒认知,并有必要心理和政策准备;二是在对外能源合作中,中国要重视自身的能力建设,争取更大话语权,并寻求和巩固同合作方的共同利益、加强互信。

Although China and Russia have strong complementarities in the energy field, they confronted much obstacles during the natural gas cooperation negotiation. What's the explanation behind this phenomenon? And what led finally to the ultimate success of negotiation? This article analyzes the changes of China's and Russia's positions and behavior during the negotiation from both socioeconomic and geopolitical perspectives. The article comes to the conclusion that: first, while socioeconomic development is the basis of Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation, common interests evolved gradually throughout the 3 phases of the negotiation. Second, geopolitics can be both accelerative and impeditive factors. Third, the state-market relationship determines how socioeconomic interests and geopolitical concerns affect the negotiations, i.e., the gas deal should generate real socioeconomic dividends on the one hand, and serve geopolitical purposes on the other. Therefore, China should keep cool-headed toward the strategic partnership with Russia and prepare for contingencies. and at the same time pay more attention to its capacity building in external energy cooperation to strengthen its bargaining position and search for ways to consolidate common interests and mutual trust.