农村集体建设用地市场的发展与影响因素计量经济研究--基于广东省南海区1872份市场交易及398份调研数据需求侧的实证分析

Econometric Research on the Development of Rural Collective Construction Land Market and Its Impact Factors:An Empirical Analysis based on 1872 Market Transaction Data and 398 Questionnaire Data in Nanhai District, Guangdong Province

研究目的:利用2010—2015年集体建设用地市场交易数据归纳出市场发展特征,在此基础上利用398份问卷调研数据分析南海区农村集体建设用地市场发展及影响因素,为农村集体建设用地市场的发展提供建议。研究方法:Tobit模型,二值选择的Probit模型。研究结果:(1)集体建设用地市场发展特征表现为集体经济组织的高度自组织性;市场交易的高频率;市场客体为存量建设用地;市场交易波动性大。(2)资产专用性正向影响契约期限、交易对象的选择,威廉姆斯交易成本理论认为长期契约有利于给予投资者进行投资的信心;集体经济组织化水平是集体建设用地市场发展的关键因素。(3)交易的不确定性越强,企业越倾向于选择短期契约,以降低企业的预期风险;市场交易"买进"战略存在风险,企业倾向于选择与集体经济组织交易,以降低交易成本,提高市场交易的有效性。研究结论:为提高集体建设用地市场发展的有效性和效率,明晰土地和房屋产权是前提和保障,其次应将农村集体经济组织作为集体建设用地市场交易的第三方规制。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the developmental characteristics of the rural collective construction land market in Nanhai District by using the rural collective construction land transfer data from 2010--2015, to explore the impact factors of collective construction land market by utilizing 398 questionnaire data, and to make suggestions for the development of collective construction land market. The methods of Tobit model and the binary Probit model were employed. The results show that： 1 ）The market characteristics of rural collective construction land market were as follows： The collective economic organization showed the high degree of self-organization; the frequency of market transaction was high; the market object was the existing construction land; the market fluctuations were severe. 2）Assets specificity positively influenced the market contract period and trade object, as Williamson＇s transaction cost theory considered that long-term contract is conducive to give confidence to investors; the self-organized level of collective economic organization was the key factor in the development of collective construction land market. 3）As the uncertainty of transactions became stronger, firms tended to choose a short-term contract, in order to reduce the expected risk; market transactions had ＂buy-in＂ strategic risk, therefore, firms tended to transact with the village collective with the aim of reducing the market transactions risk, thereby to improve the effectiveness of market transactions. In conclusion, in order to improve the effectiveness of collective construction land market, firstly, well delineating property rights of land and house is the premise and the guarantee; secondly, the village collective economic organization should be regarded as the third party of regulating collective construction land market.