重庆市肿瘤登记地区结直肠肛门癌发病变化趋势及其影响因素

Incidence changing trend and its influencing factors of colorectal anal cancer in cancer registration areas of Chongqing

目的了解重庆市肿瘤登记地区结直肠肛门癌发病趋势变化及其影响因素,为开展结直肠肛门癌防治工作提供建议。方法收集整理2006—2014年重庆市肿瘤登记点报告结直肠肛门癌新发病例,统计分析发病率、中国人口标化发病率(中标率)、年度变化百分比,采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行趋势变化分析。采用差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对恶性肿瘤发病的贡献率。结果重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病率和中国人口标化发病率由2006年的14.15/10万和12.57/10万上升至26.82/10万与17.67/10万,年度变化百分比(APC)分别为8.22%与4.39%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。城市与农村发病率及中标率均呈上升的趋势,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病率上升人口因素与非人口因素的贡献率分别为56.72%与43.28%,城市地区结直肠肛门癌发病率上升非人口因素的贡献率(66.94%)高于人口因素的贡献率(33.06%),而农村地区结直肠肛门癌发病率上升人口因素的贡献率(78.76%)高于非人口因素的贡献率(21.24%)。结论重庆市结直肠肛门癌发病率呈持续上升的趋势,受人口因素与非人口因素的协同影响,应针对城乡影响因素的差异开展结直肠肛门癌的防治工作。

[Objective] To understand the change of incidence trend and its influencing factors of colorectal anal cancer,provide the suggestions for colorectal anal cancer prevention and control work.[Methods]The new colorectal anal cancer cases reported by cancer registration sites of Chongqing from 2006-2014 were collected. The incidence, Chinese standardized incidence,and annual percent change（APC） were analyzed. The trend change was analyzed by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model. The contribution rates of demographic and non-demographic factors to malignant tumor incidence were calculated by difference decomposing method.[Results]The incidence rate and Chinese standardized incidence of colorectal anal cancer in Chongqing increased from 14.15/100 000 and 12.57/100 000 in 2006 to 26.82/100 000 and 17.67/100 000. APC was 8.22% and 4.39%,and the difference was statistically significant（P〈0.05）. The incidence rate and Chinese standardized incidence among the male and the female,in urban and rural area all increased,and the differences were statistically significant（P〈0.05）. The contribution rates of demographic and non-demographic factors for colorectal anal cancer incidence were 56.72% and 43.28% respectively. The contribution rate of non-demographic factors for colorectal anal cancer incidence in urban area（66.94%） was higher than that of demographic factors（33.06%）. But the contribution rate of demographic factors for colorectal anal cancer incidence in rural area（78.76%） was higher than that of non-demographic factors（21.24%）.[Conclusion]The incidence rate of colorectal anal cancer in Chongqing increased constantly and was affected by demographic and non-demographic factors. The prevention and control work of colorectal anal cancer should be carried out according to the difference of influencing factors between urban and rural area.