我国农业旱灾脆弱性与农村贫困的灰色关联分析

Agricultural drought vulnerability and grey correlation analysis of rural poverty

旱灾对农业和农民的影响是巨大的和最为直接的,重大旱灾甚至使农民因灾返贫、因灾致贫,严重影响着农业经济的可持续发展和农村小康的全面实现。而农业旱灾对于农村贫困的影响主要取决于农业旱灾承灾体的脆弱性。依据数据的可获得性和详尽程度,选取9项农业旱灾脆弱性影响因子作为子序列,以农村贫困作为母序列,根据灰色系统理论,运用灰色关联模型分别对其相关关系进行定量分析,计算其关联度并得出关联序,得出结论:农业干旱脆弱性各影响因子对农村贫困的影响由大到小依次为第一产业就业人口比重、农业GDP比重、农村恩格尔系数、农民年均工资性收入、农业机械总动力、单位面积粮食产量、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量和财政支农。结论提出了相应的降低承灾体脆弱性、减轻农业干旱灾害风险,防止因灾致贫和返贫的对策建议。

Agricultural drought disaster is closely related to the rural poor. Draw lessons from the existing research results, this paper applied grey correlation model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between agricultural drought and rural poverty in China, so as to give suggestions to help effectively reduce the vulnerability of hazard-affected body of agricultural drought, improve the ability of hazard-affected body against drought disasters, stabilize and increase farmers＇ income, and prevent poverty from drought disaster. Based on the data availability and degree of detail, we selected 9 agricultural drought vulnerability factors as the subsequence and the rural poverty as mother sequence. By using the grey correlation model, the relationship between rural poverty and each agricultural drought vulnerability factor was analyzed. Results show that： from high to low, the influence of each agricultural drought vulnerability factor on rural poverty ranked as： the first industry employment population, agricultural GDP, rural engel＇s coefficient, the farmers＇ average annual salary income, total power of agricultural machinery, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigation area, applying fertilizer content, and finance support agriculture. According to the results, we put forward countermeasures and suggestions as follows：（1）vigorously develop modern agriculture, increase farmers＇ non-agricultural income, and reduce farmers＇ dependence on agriculture;（2）give play to the leading role of science and technology innovation, and improve the agricultural science and technology contribution rate;（3）multi-channel increase agricultural investment to strengthen the construction of rural water infrastructure;（4）strengthen the agricultural supply side structural reform, improve the quality and efficiency of supply. The innovation point of this paper is the correlation analysis of the agricultural drought disaster and rural poverty. Previous studies mainly focused on qualitative analysis, and here we made a precise quantitative analysis by using grey correlation model. With a variety of dimensionless processing data, this method was used to calculate the correlation degree and relational sequence between each agricultural drought vulnerability factor and rural poverty;and by testing the reasonable degree of the relational sequences obtain from a variety of methods, and micro adjusting the rational degree model of relational sequences, this method can better reflect the sequences difference. This paper has certain theoretical guidance meaning and decision-making reference value to our country agriculture sustainable development and the realization of the comprehensive well-off.