山东省电力需求预测及分析

Prediction and Analysis of Shandong Province's Electric Power Demand

基于山东省过去10年的电力消费情况,充分运用相关的理论知识,对山东省的电力需求情况进行了预测和分析。首先,通过对GDP增长的情景设置,运用弹性系数法对山东省的电力消费情况进行了预测;其次,借助MATLAB分析软件,利用马尔科夫链的趋势预测分析法对山东省的电力消费结构进行了预测;最后,根据国家当前对节能减排的环境质量要求,预测、修正并优化了山东省的电力需求目标结构,为山东省制定电力发展规划提供参考。

Based on the electricity consumption over the past 10 years in Shandong province,fully using the related theory knowledge,this paper forecasts and analyzes the status of Shandong Province＇ s electricity demand.First of all,through the scene settings of GDP growth,this paper uses elasticity coefficient method to predict the electricity consumption in Shandong province.Secondly,with the aid of MATLAB software and the use of Markov chain trend forecast analysis,it predicts the electricity consumption structure in Shandong Province.Finally,according to the national current environmental quality requirements for energy conservation and emissions reduction,it predicts,amends and optimizes the goal structure of Shandong Province＇s electricity demand,providing reference for its electric power development planning.