金融危机、财政刺激与上市公司过度投资

Financial Crisis,Fiscal Stimulus and Overinvestment of Listed Companies

基于中国制度背景,本文研究了金融危机与财政刺激政策对上市公司过度投资行为的影响。研究发现,以投资规模平稳预期为基准,上市公司投资规模向下偏离提升了企业价值、向上偏离减损了企业价值,说明中国上市公司普遍存在过度投资行为;进一步研究发现,上市公司过度投资行为在金融危机时期更为严重,而受到财政刺激政策直接支持的上市公司及国有上市公司,其过度投资行为在短期内均较其他企业有所缓解,但长期效果不显著。我们认为,由于具有整体较强的过度投资倾向,以往文献直接采用投资规模偏离度量中国上市公司投资效率的方法并不完全适用;同时,在金融危机的需求冲击下,财政刺激政策在短期内对上市公司恢复投资、提升价值具有一定的积极作用。

Based on the system background of China,this paper studies the over-investment behavior of listed company under financial crisis and fiscal stimulus.The results show that downward deviation investment scale could promote the listed company value,but upward deviation has counterproductive effect.There is a widespread over-investment behavior in China＇s listed companies.Further,over-investment behavior are more significant during financial crisis.More important,because of the support of fiscal stimulus,certain industries＇ and state-owned enterprises＇ behaviors are eased in short-term.But the long-term effects are not significant.As a result of the Chinese listed company has a strong overall tendency of over-investment,adopting the method of investment scale deviation to measure investment efficiency directly is not appropriate.At the same time,under the demand shock of financial crisis,the fiscal stimulus has certain positive effect in the listed company investment recovery and promoting value in short-term.