集中式天然气发电项目经济性研究

Economic research on centralized gas power generation projects

目前中国集中式天然气发电面临着气价较高、设备投资成本高、气源不足等因素的困扰,而且执行的仍然是临时上网电价,没有体现气电"峰谷分时"电价、环境保护等外部成本,较煤电而言缺乏市场竞争力。本文采用平准化发电成本(LCOE)作为衡量集中式天然气发电竞争力的主要指标,计算出合理的LCOE电价,并对气价、利用小时数等因素进行敏感性分析,通过上海、北京、浙江等6个典型省市的气电上网电价对比,发现中国集中式天然气发电项目经济性较差,利润空间有待进一步发掘。针对当前市场环境和未来发展趋势,提出明确气电发展政策、完善上网电价机制、加快天然气发电核心技术开发等建议。

The centralized gas power generation in China faces with several problems such as high gas prices, high cost of equipment investment and insufficient gas resources, as well as is still a temporary feed-in tariffs without the reflection of external costs of time-of-use in gas-electric and environmental protection. Compared with coal power, gas power generation lacks market competitiveness. The paper adopts the level cost of electricity（LCOE） as the main indicators, calculates the reasonable LCOE, and sensitively analyzes the price of natural gas and utilization time; compares the gas-electric feed-in tariffs of six typical provinces and cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang province, etc., and finds that centralized gas power generation project has poor economy in China, profit space remains to be further explored. According to the current market environment and future development trend, the paper recommends putting forward clearly gas-electric development policy, bettering the mechanism of FIT and accelerating the development of core technology, etc.