低油价下油气并购市场走势及其对中国石油公司的启示

Analysis of global M&A market trend under the low oil price and its enlightenment

2014年下半年油价下跌进入低油价期以来,油气并购市场交易量萎缩,交易价格下降,交易主体与高油价期相比也发生了重大变化。展望2017年,优质待售资产和破产公司增加,新的投资机会选择面广;国际大石油公司均有资产出售计划,同时是潜在买家;并购市场复苏仍面临众多阻力。石油公司应遵循在缓解当前经营困境的短期目标和保持未来发展潜力的长期目标间保持平衡的原则。建议中国的石油公司实施战略转型,从规模发展向效益发展转变;实施差异化战略,注重资产优化和价值增长;实施逆周期战略,注重前瞻性决策和可持续发展。

The oil and gas MA market has shrunk along with the down cycle of crude oil prices and decrease of transaction prices since the 2nd half of 2014 and transaction parties changed significantly compared to the high-price era. The high-quality assets for sale and bankrupt companies will increase; new investment opportunities will be available in wide range; the large-scale oil companies are ready to sell their assets and also potential buyers; while there are a lot of difficulties for MA market recovery in 2017. Oil companies should follow the principle of keeping balance between alleviating the current management predicament in the short-term and keeping the future development potential in the long-term. The paper suggests China＇s oil companies should develop from scales to benefits by strategic transformation, focus on the asset optimization and value growth by the differential strategy, and pay more attention to the forward-looking decision-making and sustainable development by the counter-cycle strategy.