摘要
20世纪80年代,风电功率预测技术的研究工作就已经开始,随着研究的深入,预测方法越来越多,预测精度也不断提高。而在全球风电产业迅猛发展的今天,以单一方法为主的早期预测系统,逐渐不能满足现代行业的需求,组合预测作为一种全新的预测技术慢慢出现于各国研究人员的工作中。通过国内外大量的实际应用,我们发现把多种预测方法进行加权组合,预测精度相比单一的预测方法有了明显提高,为未来的风电功率预测技术指明了发展方向。
The study of wind power prediction technology has already begun in 1980＇s.More and more forecasting methods were invented,and the accuracy was continuously improved.In the rapid development of global wind power industry nowadays,the early prediction system based on a single method could not meet the needs of modern industry,the combination forecast is a new way that slowly appeared in the researches over the world.Through a large number of practical application at home and abroad,we find that the accuracy of combination method has improved dramatically comparing to a single method,and point out the direction of the development in the wind power prediction technology.
出处
《气象科技进展》
2016年第6期26-29,共4页
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
风电功率
单一预测
加权组合
组合预测
wind power
single forecast
weighted combination
combined forecast
