全国80cm地温分布特征和基于太阳辐射的预测方法

Distribution Features of Earth Temperature at 80 cm in China and Prediction Method Based on the Factor of Solar Radiation

利用2001—2010年全国80cm层的逐日平均地温资料,分析了全国地温的时空分布规律;同时结合太阳辐射资料,分析太阳辐射和地温的相关性;将太阳辐射作为预报因子,构建地温预报模型。结果表明,各海拔高度的地温呈现相同的季节变化,在夏季达到波峰,春季降到波谷,并且多年演变趋势呈现上升趋势;经30日滑动平均处理后太阳辐射与滞后60日的地温相关性较好,以此构建的地温预报模型能够较好地预报出地温的周期波动性,并且预报准确率较高。

Temporal and spatial distribution of earth temperature in China was analyzed based on the daily mean earth temperature at 80 cm for 2001-2010.Meanwhile,the correlation of earth temperature with solar radiation was analyzed;the earth temperature prediction model was constructed by taking solar radiation as the predictor.The results show that earth temperature presents similarly seasonal variation in various depths,and reaches a ridge in summer then dropped to trough in the next spring.The long-term evolution demonstrated a rising tendency.We found that the correlation of the 60-day lagged earth temperature to the solar radiation become better after a 30-day moving average on each of the two series.Then,we constructed a prediction model to forecast the periodic fluctuation of the earth temperature,and got a higher accuracy.Thus this model may be applied in the future.