增加值率能否反映经济增长质量?

Can the Value-Added-Rate Reflect the Quality of Economic Growth?

研究目标:回答增加值率能否反映经济增长质量的问题。研究方法:通过建立CES型总产出生产函数和动态经济系统,从理论上提出增加值率门槛上限,并实证检验了中国增加值率的国际比较及省际比较。研究发现:增加值率存在着一个门槛上限,当低于该值时,实际增加值率越高表示增长质量越好,而超出时则完全相反;实际增加值率与门槛上限之间存在着长期的协整关系,且与全要素生产率之间存在着倒U形关系;增加值率门槛上限与资本折旧率、人口增长率和储蓄率等宏观经济指标相关。研究创新:采用增加值率评价经济增长质量,应该考虑增加值率门槛上限。研究价值:有助于《工业转型升级规划(2011~2015年)》和《中国制造2025》中以增加值率评价质量效益工作合理实施。

Research Objectives： Answering the question of whether the value added rate （VAR） can reflect the quality of economic growth. Research Methods： By establishing the CES total output production function and dynamic economic system, this paper puts forward to a threshold limit of VAR theoretically, and empirically tests the real VAR international com- parison among China and some other countries and domestically comparison among provinces respectively. Research Findings： Firstly, there exists a threshold limit of VAR. When the re- al VAR is below it, the larger the real VAR, the higher the quality of economic growth is. However, once the real VAR is above the threshold limit, the trend shows the opposite trend. Secondly, there exists a long-term co-integration relationship between the real VAR and the threshold limit, and there also exists an inverted U relationship between the real VAR and Total Factor Productivity. Finally, the threshold limit of VAR is associated with the capital depreciation rate, population growth rate, saving rate and other macroeconomic indicators. Research Innovations： Using VAR to evaluate the quality of economic growth, it should consider the threshold limit of VAR. Research Value： Contribute to Industrial Trans- formation and Upgrading Plan （2011-2015） and Made in China 2025 Plan respectively in order to increase VAR evaluation of the quality and efficiency of the work of reasonable im- plementation.