基于VAR模型的工业经济发展与环境污染关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Industrial Economic Development and Environmental Pollution Based on VAR Model

本文基于2000~2015年工业废气、工业废水和工业固体废弃物3个环境污染指标和人均GDP经济发展指标数据,利用VAR模型,通过Johansen协整检验、Granger检验、脉冲响应和方差分解研究我国工业经济发展与环境污染之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)工业经济发展与环境污染存在着长期均衡的关系;(2)工业废气排放、工业固体废物排放和工业废水排放均是工业经济发展的原因;(3)环境污染对工业经济发展影响具有一定的滞后性。其中工业废气污染对工业经济发展的影响是正向的,滞后时间为6个月;工业固体废弃物污染对工业经济的影响是正向的,滞后时间为5个月。工业废水污染对工业经济的影响是负向的,滞后时间为5个月;(4)工业固体废弃物对工业经济发展的影响作用最大,其次为工业废水,最后为工业废气。

In this paper,based on the data of 2000-2015 industrial waste gas,industrial wastewater and industrial solid waste three environmental pollution indicators and GDP per capita economic development index,using the VAR model,the decomposition of the relationship between China’s industrial economic development and environmental pollution are test using the impulse response and variance Johansen cointegration test,Granger test. The results show that：（1） between the economic development and environmental pollution industries,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship;（2） industrial emissions,industrial solid waste emissions and industrial wastewater emissions are the causes of industrial economic development;（3） the impact of environmental pollution on industrial economic development has a certain lag. The influence of industrial waste gas pollution on the development of industrial economy is positive,the lag time is 6 months; the industrial solid waste pollution is positive to the industrial economy,the lag time is 5 months. The effects of industrial wastewater pollution in the industrial economy is negative,the lag time is 5 months;（4） industrial solid waste impact on the industrial economic development role is the largest,followed by industrial wastewater,and industrial waste gas.