美国与全球化关系的再定义——高度不确定的未来

Redefining the Relationship between the United States and Globalization:A Highly Uncertain Future

2016年总统大选标志着美国与全球化的关系进入一个新的时期,即重新界定美国与全球化关系的时期。特朗普反对自由贸易协定,支持收缩移民政策,反对所谓的"政治正确"(political correctness),其成功当选的主要原因包括:第一,在全球化冲击下,美国中产阶级出现"空心化"现象。一方面,中产阶级中下层特别是蓝领工人的工作岗位不保,经济利益受损;另一方面,社会财富分配严重不公,社会流动性减弱,"美国梦"的实现难度陡增。第二,"美国身份认同"危机因人口结构的迅速变化及文化多元化发展而爆发,令部分白人产生严重的不适与不安。第三,政治极化使两党难以在国会内达成妥协,联邦政府工作效率低下,民众对政治精英和主要政党的信任度降到历史低点。美国政治体系"失效",令民粹主义抬头。特朗普政府上台后,短期内将推行逆全球化的经济政策;继续将外部因素作为"替罪羊",以回应国内民众的诉求;外交政策会出现回摆,但美国不会退出全球化。外界不应高估美国的逆全球化立场和影响,但应做好准备应对一个倾向"孤立"的美国。

The 2016 U.S.presidential election has ended with an upset victory by Donald Trump,a political outsider with anti-establishment views—anti-free trade agreements,anti-immigration,and anti-political correctness.The election has marked a crucial moment of redefining the relationship between the United States and globalization.His stunning victory has been attributed to three factors:an increasingly disaffected middle class,especially the white working class,which is being hollowed out in the era of globalization; a brewing American identity crisis increasingly common in the anxious white population due to dramatic demographic changes and explosive cultural pluralism; and a paralyzed Congress mired in polarized,partisan politics,unable to deliver real benefits to the wider population.A Trump administration may unveil anti-globalist economic policies for the short term and find foreign scapegoats for domestic economic difficulties.Although President Trump might also swing back the United States' foreign policy pendulum,the United States will not bow out of globalization.The rest of the world should not overplay the United States' anti-globalization impulse while preparing for the challenges coming from a pro-isolationist United States.