基于空间计量模型的新型城镇化对产业结构升级的影响研究

On Impact of New Urbanization upon Industrial Structure Upgrading Based on Spatial Econometrics

基于全国和东中西部2005年-2014年的相关数据,通过对产业结构升级的Moran's I的计算表明,全国和东部省区的产业结构升级具有扩散效应,而中西部省区具有集聚效应,同时Moran's I变化较小,说明产业结构升级不明显。通过空间杜宾模型分析发现,新型城镇化对全国及各省区产业结构升级具有积极的促进作用;经济发展水平在全国和东中部地区对产业结构升级具有促进作用;科技进步在全国和东部具有促进作用;人力资本水平只在东部具有促进作用;固定资产投资对各省区产业结构升级具有积极的促进作用。各因素的间接效应在省区间差异明显,各省区在制定相关政策时不仅要考虑本省区的实际,同时要与邻接省区相关政策进行协调,以促进产业结构升级。

Based on relative data concerning the whole nation,eastern,central and western China from2005 and 2014,through the Moran＇s I calculation of industrial structure upgrading,the article shows that the very upgrading in the whole nation and eastern provinces has a diffusion effect,the upgrading in mid and western provinces has a combined effect with a small change of Moran＇s I,and this indicates that the upgrading is not prominent.Through the analysis of Spatial Dubin Model（SDM）,the article finds that the new urbanization has positively promoted the national and provincial industrial structure upgrading;the economic development level has promoted both the national upgrading and that in eastern and mid areas;technological advance has promoted both the national and eastern provincial upgrading;human capital level only works in eastern areas;fixed asset investment has positively promoted all provincial upgrading.The indirect effect of all factors varies greatly among provinces.While making relative policies,all provinces should not only take into consideration their actual situations,but also should coordinate with bordering provinces in terms of relative policies so as to promote industrial upgrading.