丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆区域发展不均衡测度及其动态分解——基于人口与经济分布匹配视角

Estimation and Dynamic Decomposition of Regional Development Imbalance in Xinjiang under the Background of Silk Road Economic Zone——Matching Perspective of Population and Economy Distribution

通过测度新疆区域发展不均衡水平及动态分解研究,可以发现2000年-2015年新疆区域发展不均衡水平呈"缩小—扩大—缩小"的变动趋势;新疆五大子区域中,除天山南坡产业带外,其他区域不均衡水平均呈现整体下降态势,新疆15个地州市不均衡水平也均呈下降态势;新疆区域发展不均衡变动的主要原因是经济聚集度的变化,而人口聚集度变化在缩小新疆区域发展不均衡上的作用在不断增强。要实现在核心区建设中的区域均衡发展,新疆应实施"人口向北聚集、产业向南聚集"的策略。

Through estimation of regional development imbalance in Xinjiang and dynamic decomposition study,we have found from2000 to 2015 the regional development imbalance in Xinjiang shows the dynamic trend of ＂ decreasing-increasing-decreasing＂ pattern.In the five sub-regions,all,except Tianshan southern slope industrial zone,show general decreasing trend in terms of regional development imbalance,and 15 prefectures and cities also show the similar decreasing trend.The changes of economic aggregation are the main reason behind the changes of regional development imbalance in Xinjiang,and the changes of population aggregation are playing agrowing role in the regional development imbalance.In order to realize balanced regional development in the construction of key areas,Xinjiang should implement the strategy of ＂population aggregates northward and the industries aggregate southward＂.