中国基本养老保险基金支出绩效评价:2003-2015——实证研究与对策模拟

Performance Evaluation of Public Pension Expenditure in China:2003-2015——Empirical Study and Gaming Simulation

在对基本养老保险基金支出绩效评价进行指标体系理论构建的基础上,通过设计指标评价标准、采集历年指标数据,我们可对中国基本养老保险基金支出绩效的经济性、效率性、有效性(统称为"3E"指标)进行实证评价,2003-2015年的绩效综合评价结论为:"平均接近70分,综合得分略有上升,‘3E’指标变化明显"。借助于指标体系这一支出绩效评价工具,可以发现,拉低综合得分的具体问题主要在于以下几个方面,即:财政补助力度不足、女性法定退休年龄过低、基本养老金替代率水平偏低、多支柱养老体系匮乏。在此基础上,通过对策模拟研究,便可有的放矢地提出加大财政补助力度、调整女性法定退休年龄、提高基本养老金替代率水平、建立多支柱养老体系等多项可量化对策建议。

A practical indicative empirical analysis of China＇ s public pension expenditure perfor- mance evaluation is undertaken in this paper, which focuses on the economy, efficiency and effective- ness by means of designing evaluation standards and collecting data for each indicator, drawing the comprehensive conclusion that the average performance scores from 2003 to 2015 keep nearly 70 marks, with now a little higher than before and dramastic structual change among ＂3E＂ categaries. It turns out that the main factors of inadequate government-subsidized public pension expenditure, lower standard of retirement age, lower level of public pension replacement rate and shortage of multi-pillar old-care system reduce the comprehensive scores in China. Correspondingly, several quantifiable poli- cies are proposed by means of gaming simulation, which include increasing the government-subsidized public pension expenditure, postponing the statutory retirement age of female, improving public pen- sion replacement level and constructing multi-pillar old-age care system.