突发水污染应急处置技术方案动态生成模型及决策支持软件系统

Decision-making models of dynamically technology preparedness plan production for emergency response to chemical spills in surface waters

突发水污染应急响应过程最为关键的需求是"应急处置",决策者需要快速准确地选择适宜的应急处置技术,制定应急处置技术方案.技术预案编制过程中只能依据典型污染情景提出应急处置工程实施操作路线,不可能穷尽所有可能情景,因此,有必要依据具体污染情景或工况动态生成处置技术方案.本研究将应急处置技术预案(方案)拆分为"案例-技术-材料"3个模块,系统地提出"相似历史案例筛选、应急处置技术筛选、应急处置材料筛选"三步筛选模式及决策模型,开发软件平台用于智能生成应急处置技术预案或方案.以2011年浙江建德新安江苯酚污染事件为案例进行验证分析,快速生成了基于吸附技术与混凝技术的处置方案.结果表明,该三步筛选框架、模型群组及决策支持系统具有较强的实用性和可行性,极大地提高了水污染应急处置技术筛选的效率和科学性,可为响应者实施突发水污染应急处置工程提供强有力的决策支持,在方法学上丰富了响应阶段的应急管理工具.

The most important step in emergency response to freshwater spills is‘emergency disposal＇,where responders are required to screen the most appropriate disposal technology accurately and make emergency treatment plan immediately following the incident. The emergency response plan cannot consider all possible pollution scenarios. As a result,it is important to develop‘on-line＇emergency disposal operation routine to cope with the incident.This technology preparedness plan consists of three sub-systems,i.e. ＂Cases-Technology-Materials＂,and includes a three-step screening framework and decision models： matching similar historical cases,screening disposal technology and screening emergency disposal materials. A decision support system was also developed for intelligently producing disposal preparedness plan. A case study based on phenol leakage pollution incident in Jiande,Zhejiang Province,2011 was conducted to test the new approach,successfully recommending adsorption-based and coagulation-based disposal technology. Results show that this three-step framework,decision models and software are feasible and practical. It greatly improved the efficiency and scientific decision making for screening emergency pollution control technology. From methodological point of view,it also enriches the emergency management tools to be used during the response stage.