基于多元驱动力的大城市空间布局情景模拟——以武汉市为例

Scenario Planning for Multiple Urban Space Development Driving Force in Wuhan

城市空间发展驱动力具有不确定性,城市空间布局的优化调整需要借助情景规划的理论与方法。在分析大城市空间发展驱动力演化的基础上,指出市场力的变迁促使主导功能要素升级,而政府力则通过公共产品供给与制度框架干预空间资源配置。随后以武汉市为例,根据市场力与政府力的现状特征识别出三大空间发展驱动力,并生成三种情景空间布局方案,在综合比对分析后提出了整合性方案,对多元驱动力下城市空间布局情景规划方法做了初步探索。

There are uncertainties in the drive force of urban space development, so the optimization of urban layout should use the theory and method of scenario planning. Based on the evolution analysis of the metropolis space development driving force, we suggest that the evolution of market drive the upgrade of function elements, while the government impacts the space allocation of the resources by regime. Furthermore, we take an example of Wuhan to construct three-scenario layout planning according to the current characteristic of market and government driving force and explore the space scenario layout nlanning in the backgrourtd of multiple driving force.