基于成分数据视角的我国能源需求结构变动及其预测

An Empirical Research Based on the Composition Data Perspective Forecast on Energy Demand Structure and It's Variation in China

选取能源统计相关数据,利用成分数据分析方法对我国未来能源需求结构进行预测。结果表明:预计到2015年,在我国能源需求结构中,煤炭需求所占比重为53%,石油需求所占比重为20.82%,天然气所占比重为10.8%,风电、核电、水电所占比重为15.29%,能源需求结构有所改善,煤炭需求有所下降,其他清洁能源需求有所上升,但是与发达国家能源需求结构相比,我国能源需求结构仍不合理,最后提出相关建议对我国未来能源需求结构进行优化。

The paper selects some energy statistical data, using composition data analysis method to forecast China＇s energy demand structure in the future. The results show that in 2015, in China＇s energy demand structure, coal demand accounts for 53%, oil demand accounts for 20.82%, natural gas accounts for 10.8%, wind power, nuclear power, hydroelectricity accounts for 15.29%, and there are some improvement in energy demand structure. Coal demand is going to decline, other clean energies demand will increase, but compared with developed countries, China＇s energy demand structure is still unreasonable, in the end, some ideas and suggestion are proposed to optimize the energy demand structure in future.