长江经济带产业发展与能耗的脱钩分析及能耗水平预测

Decoupling Analysis on Industrial Development and Energy Consumption of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Energy Consumption Prediction

基于2006-2012年数据,利用Tapio脱钩模型和情景分析法实证研究了长江经济带产业发展与能耗的脱钩关系,并预测了不同情景下2020年能耗水平。结果表明:(1)长江经济带产业发展与能耗为弱脱钩,其中三大产业绝大多数年份均为弱脱钩,一、三产业个别年份为扩张耦合,9省市也基本均为弱脱钩,江西和四川个别年份为扩张耦合;(2)三种情景中节能情景和强化节能情景下长江经济带能在降低能耗的同时,促进产业发展,达到强脱钩,实现长江经济带成功转型升级,且三种情景下产值效应是能耗增加的主要因素,结构效应对能耗影响不大,其在基准情景和节能情景下促进了能耗增加,在强化节能情景下降低了能耗,而能源强度效应是降低能耗的关键因素。

Based on the data of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2006 to 2012, the paper empirically studies the decoupling relationship between industrial development and energy consumption by Tapio decoupling model, and predicts the 2020 energy consumption under different scenarios. The results show that it is weak decoupling relationship between industrial development and energy consumption of the Yangtze River belt, the decoupling relationship of three industries are weak decoupling for most of the years, the first industry and the third industry is the expansion coupling in individual year, 9 provinces are almost weak decoupling, Jiangxi and Sichuan is the expansion coupling in individual year; the Yangtze River economic belt can reduce energy consumption and promote industrial development in the meantime, to reach strong decoupling and achieve the successful transformation and upgrading of the Yangtze River economic belt in energy-saving scenarios and strengthening energy-saving scenarios. Finally, the output effect is also a main factor for increasing the energy consumption. The structure effect has little effect on energy consumption. It has promoted energy consumption increasing in the baseline scenario and the energy-saving scenario, and reduced the energy consumption in strengthening energy-saving scenarios, while energy intensity effect is also the key factor to reduce energy consumption.