1978-2014年新疆农作物受极端气候事件影响的灾情变化趋势分析

Disaster Trend of Crops Affected by Extreme Climatic Events in Xinjiang During 1978-2014

为了减少极端气候事件对农作物产量带来的损失,笔者基于灾害学理论,借助数理统计的趋势分析、相关分析、多元回归等方法,分析1978—2014年旱灾、洪灾、风雹及低温冷害等极端气候事件对新疆农作物成灾、受灾面积的影响。并用1978—2014年间新疆农作物生产投入产出的相关数据和扩展的柯布-道哥拉斯生产函数(C-D)构建非线性模型,揭示不同投入因素对农作物产量的影响。结果表明:(1)近37年来,旱灾、洪灾、风雹及低温冷害等极端气候事件对新疆农作物的受灾面积及成灾面积均以不同幅度大小呈现出上升趋势;(2)1978—2014年各种气象灾害导致新疆农作物直接经济损失为93.772亿元,其中旱灾导致的农作物经济损失占总气象灾害损失的29.7%,冷冻占14.64%,其他灾害占28.4%;(3)在影响新疆单位面积农作物产量的诸多因素当中,成灾率是对该区域农作物产量影响最大的因素,当成灾率每增加1%时,而单位面积农作物产量将减产3.73%。

The paper aims to reduce the cost brought by extreme climatic events. Based on disaster theory and trend analysis of mathematical statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression, etc., the authors analyzed the influences of extreme climatic events on crops in Xinjiang, such as drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling damage, etc. during 1978-2014. Meanwhile, the authors used the relevant data of Xinjiang crops＇ production inputoutput and expanded Cobb-Douglas production function （C-D） for establishing a non-linear model to reveal the influences of different input elements on crop output. The results indicated that： （1） extreme climatic events caused disasters to crops in Xinjiang, and the disaster trend was a rising one with different ranges in the 37 years concerning the damaged area or disaster area; （2） the direct economic loss of crops was 9.3772 billion RMB in Xinjiang due to all kinds of meteorological disasters, among which drought loss accounted for 29.7%, freezing accounted for 14.64%, while others accounted for 28.4%; （3） among the factors affecting the crop output per unit area in Xinjiang, the disaster rate was the most influential, the crop output per unit area would be reduced by 3.37% when the disaster rate increased by 1%.