反应堆压力容器概率断裂力学计算中的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis on Calculation of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Reactor Pressure Vessels

为评价输入参数对反应堆压力容器特定运行事件下失效概率计算结果的影响,建立了反应堆压力容器概率断裂力学计算模型,对计算所用主要参数进行敏感性分析,得到了缺陷类型及形状、辐照脆化程度、材料化学成分及温预应力对容器失效概率的影响,并分析了各参数的敏感程度.结果表明:输入参数的可靠性是保证概率断裂力学分析结果可靠有效的前提,材料化学成分及缺陷深度等参数对计算结果有重要影响.

To evaluate probability under speci the effects of input parameters on the calculation results of reactor vessel failure fie operation conditions, a calculation model for probabilistic fracture mechanics of reactor pressure vessel（RPV） was established for sensitivity analysis on main parameters applied in the cal- culation, so as to study the influence of various factors on the RPV failure probability, such as the defect type and shape, irradiation embrittlement degree, material chemical composition and warm pre-stressing, etc. , and to analyze the sensitivity of each parameter. Results show that reliable input parameters are the prerequisite to ensure the reliability and validity of analysis results for probabilistic fracture mechanics. In addition, the material chemical composition and defect depth are key factors influencing the calculation results.