中国工业碳排放绩效及其影响因素--基于空间面板数据模型的实证研究

Industrial Carbon Emission Performance and Its Influencing Factors in China:Based on an Empirical Study of Spatial Panel Data Model

基于至强有效前沿的最小距离法,本文对我国1998-2012年各省的工业碳排放绩效进行了测度,并实证考察了其影响因素。研究结果表明:工业碳排放绩效高的省份大多数位于东部沿海地区,而中西部省份的工业碳排放绩效则普遍较低;聚类结果表明,各省工业碳排放量的偏态性明显要强于工业碳排放绩效,并且两者呈非对应性的关系;工业碳排放绩效的核密度曲线不仅呈现出典型的"单峰"形态,而且随着时间推移表现出向右移动的动态演进过程;区域工业碳排放绩效在空间上具有显著的正空间自相关性;工业规模、工业产权结构、技术研发、人力资本和外商直接投资等因素对工业碳排放绩效具有显著的正向影响,而重工业比重提升和工业能源消费结构与工业碳排放绩效则呈负相关。

Based on Minimum Distance to the Strong Frontier,the paper measures industrial carbon emissions performance and studies its influencing factors in the provinces of China during1998-2012 year.The results show that：most of the provinces in the high performance of industrial carbon emissions are located in the eastern coastal areas,the industrial carbon emissions performance in central and western provinces of is generally low.The clustering results show that the skewness of the industrial carbon emissions in the provinces is significantly stronger than that of the industrial carbon emissions performance,and they are not corresponding to the relationship between the two.The kernel density curve of industrial carbon emissions performance in China not only presents a typical＂single peak＂pattern,but also shows the dynamic evolution process of moving to the right with time.Regional industrial carbon emission performance has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in space.Industrial scale,industrial structure of property rights,technology research and development,human capital and FDI have significant positive impact on industrial carbon emissions performance,and upgrading of heavy proportion of industrial and industrial energy structure are negatively correlated with.