重庆市食管癌发病趋势及影响因素定量分析

Incidence Trend and Influencing Factors of Esophageal Cancer in Chongqing

[目的]了解重庆市食管癌发病趋势及影响因素,为开展食管癌防治工作提供建议。[方法 ]收集整理2006~2014年重庆市肿瘤登记点报告食管癌新发病例,统计分析粗发病率、中标率、年度变化百分比(APC),趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。利用恶性肿瘤发病率差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对恶性肿瘤发病的贡献率。[结果]2006~2014年重庆市食管癌发病率呈上升的趋势,发病率由2006年的10.51/10万上升至2014年的17.79/10万,APC为7.68%(F=7.42,P<0.05)。中标率由2006年的9.16/10万上升至2014年的10.48/10万,APC为2.74%(P>0.05)。重庆市食管癌发病率上升受人口因素与非人口因素的协同作用,人口因素与非人口因素的贡献率分别为79.12%和20.88%。农村地区人口因素与非人口因素的贡献率分别为129.01%和-29.01%。[结论]重庆市食管癌发病率呈上升的趋势,受人口因素与非人口因素的协同作用,应加强非人口因素的干预工作,做好三级预防。

[Purpose] To investigate the incidence trend of esophageal cancer and its influencing factors in Chongqing,and to provide the evidence for esophageal cancer prevention and control.[Methods] Esophageal cancer cases reported from 2006 to 2014 were collected from the cancer registration system in Chongqing. The crude incidence,age-standardized rates by Chinese population（CASR）,annual percent change（APC） of esophageal cancer were calculated. The difference of incidence trend of esophageal cancer was identified by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model. The difference decomposing of esophageal cancer incidence was used to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to different incidence of esophageal cancer. [Results] The incidence of esophageal cancer increased from 10.51/105 in 2006 to 17.79/105 in 2014 in Chongqing with an APC of 7.68%（P〈0.05）,CASR increased from 9.16/105 in 2006to 10.48/105 in 2014 with an APC of 2.74%（P〈0.05）. The contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors was 79.12% and 20.88%,respectively. Moreover,the contribution rate of demographic and non-demographic factors in rural area was 129.01% and-29.01%,respectively.[Conclusion] The incidence of esophageal cancer in Chongqing increases. And it is affected by demographic and non-demographic factors. It is should be strengthened to intervene against nondemographic factors and conduct tertiary prevention.