2016年国内外油气行业发展概述及2017年展望

Overview of developments for international oil and gas industry in 2016 and outlook for 2017

2016年,全球经济持续复苏,主要经济体走势分化;全球能源消费结构转型加快;国际油价触底反弹;欧佩克与部分非欧佩克产油国达成联合减产协议;世界天然气市场供需宽松;全球工程技术服务市场规模进一步萎缩;世界炼油能力缓慢增长,乙烯新增产能大幅减少;全球成品油供需持续宽松;油气公司经营业绩继续下滑;油气招标总体遇冷,并购市场继续低迷;油气合作经营风险上升。中国能源结构进一步优化;石油消费增速大幅放缓;天然气供需总体宽松;市场化改革加快推进;国内原油产量跌破2亿吨,天然气产量增速继续放缓;炼油能力略有增加,地炼市场份额大增;三大石油公司生产指标小幅下降;海外油气权益产量稳中有增,民营企业和地方国企"走出去"取得新成效;中国陆续发布能源领域"十三五"发展规划;市场化改革的方向和路径更加明晰。2017年,国际油价将实质性回升;全球天然气供需宽松加剧;世界炼油和乙烯能力将继续增长。中国三大油品供应过剩加剧;中国天然气市场总体宽松,国家有望全面放开非居民用气价格;炼油过剩形势更加严峻;油气行业市场化改革将全面深入推进。

In 2016, world economy continued to recover and major economies differentiated in their trends; transformation of global energy mix accelerated; international oil price already bottomed out; OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed to cut production jointly; world gas market remained sluggish with ease supply and demand; global engineering technology service market shnmk significantly; global refining capacity grew slowly, the additional ethylene production capacity declined sharply; global oil products were still in a loose market; oil and gas companies suffered from continuously-sliding business performance; oil and gas bidding was trapped in a clod stage, M＆A market still stayed at depression; oil and gas cooperation faced worse security situations and higher business risks. China saw slow but steady economic growth and a further optimized energy mix; oil consumption growth slowed down sharply; natural gas was generally in excess supply; market-oriented reform was accelerated; domestic crude oil production fell sharply to a level below 200 million tons, and gas production growth continued to slow down; the refining capacity was enhanced slightly, the market share of local refineries increased significantly; three NOCs slightly decline in production indicators; overseas equity oil and gas production grew steadily, private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises made new progress in ＂going out＂; the development programs of the energy sector for the ＂13th Five-year Plan＂ were successively released; a clearer direction and course for market-oriented reform was charted. In 2017, international oil prices will rise substantially; global gas supply and demand will be significantly relaxed; global oil refining and ethylene capacity will grow continuously. The oversupply in gasoline, diesel and kerosene will be intensified; China＇s natural gas will be generally in ample supply, the government is expected to fully liberalize non-residential gas prices; the surplus situation of refining capacity will be more severe; the market-oriented reform of the oil and gas industry will be in full swing.