黑龙江省畜牧业产值与其影响因素分析——基于回归模型与通径分析

Analysis on the output value of animal husbandry and its influencing factors in Heilongjiang province——Based on the regression model and path analysis

为了分析影响黑龙江省畜牧业产值的因素及重要程度,根据逐步回归方法利用1995—2014年影响黑龙江省畜牧业产值的因素的数据建立了回归模型。结果表明:目前科技教育是影响黑龙江畜牧业发展的主要因素,其次是自然资源、产品产出及人力要素。同时采用通径分析方法得到隶属于科技教育的教育经费以及农业机械总动力这两个因素对黑龙江畜牧业产值的总作用分别达到0.992与0.993,说明为提高黑龙江省畜牧业的发展速度,要在提高人均畜牧业产值、合理开发利用自然环境的基础上加大科技改革、教育普及的力度,更有效地促进黑龙江省畜牧业发展。

To analyze the important degree of the factors affecting the output value of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province, a regression model was established using the stepwise regression method according to the data of the factors affecting the output value of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province from 1995 to 2014. The results showed that science and technology education was the main factor affecting the develop- ment of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province, followed by natural resources, the product output and human factors. At the same time, the path analysis method was used to get the two factors that belonged to the science and technology education, including the educational appropria- tions and the total power of agricultural machinery, and the total effect of the two factors on the output value of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province reached 0. 992 and 0. 993, respectively. The results indicate that to improve the developing speed of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province, it is necessary to strengthen the development of science and technology reform and the education popularization on the basis of the im- provement of the animal husbandry output value per capita, the rational development and utilization of natural environment, so as to more effec- tively promote the development of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province.