住房公积金能留住进城流动人口吗?——基于户籍差异视角的比较分析

Can Housing Fund Retain the Floating Population?:Comparative Analysis Based on the Perspective of the Differences of Honsehold Registration

"新型城镇化,其核心是人的城镇化",在区域经济发展与城镇化建设中何以留住人?本文利用logit回归分析模型,基于全国七城市调查数据,实证检验了住房公积金制度在流动人口城市定居过程中的政策效应。研究结果表明,住房公积金制度对流动人口的城市定居意愿与城市购房都有显著的促进作用,且能够强化定居意愿对城市购房的正向影响,但其作用效果存在人群差异和地区差异。对农民工而言,在东、中、西部三类城市中,住房公积金制度均提高了其城市定居意愿,但对其城市购房无促进作用,参与公积金制度提高了农民工在城市定居的心理预期,但无助于其定居能力。对城镇户籍流动人口而言,住房公积金制度对定居意愿的促进作用只存在于东部城市,而在东、中部城市中,住房公积金能够提高其购房打算。一个理想化的政策效果是,住房公积金制度既能直接促进流动人口的城市定居行为,又能通过提高其定居意愿进而间接作用于定居行为,文章结果显示,这种理想化的政策效果只在东部城市对城镇户籍流动人口有效。

＂The urbanization of population is the core of migrant workers is the key problem for our urbanization. China, this paper analyses the policy effects of housing clown using logit regression model. The results show that the new urbanization. ＂ How to retain the Based on the fund system survey data in helping of seven cities in migrants to settle the housing fund system plays a significant role in both promoting floating population＇ s intention of settlement and their activity of purchasing house and strengthen the positive impact of the willingness to settle in the city. But the effects varies among different workers and different cities. For rural migrant workers, housing fund has improved their settlement intention but can not improve their ability of house purchasing. For urban migrant workers, housing fund improve their intention of settlement only in east cities, but it do help them purchase house in east and central cities. The perfect policy effect is that housing fund system can not only directly contribute to the migrants＇ intention of settlement in cities, but also can improve their settlement through increasing their intention to settle down. This article shows that the idealized effect of housing policy only lies in the eastern cities among the urban migrants workers.