影响因素、管控机制与人民币汇率波动趋势

Influencing Factors, Management Mechanism and the Fluctuation Trend of RMB Exchange Rate

在人民币汇率形成机制从盯住美元向盯住一篮子货币和有管理的浮动汇率机制改革过程中,人民币有效汇率一度出现持续大幅度升值,致使人民币汇率出现高估现象。2015年汇改以后,人民币有效汇率持续贬值,直接因素是热钱大量流出引致的资本净流出规模扩大,实际上是对前期人民币汇率高估的合理修正。未来人民币有效汇率进一步贬值的空间有限,人民币对美元汇率的高估已得到完全修正,再度被动贬值的空间有限,但对欧元、日元和周边国家货币汇率仍有较大幅度的贬值空间。保持人民币有效汇率稳定在合理均衡水平,需要进一步完善人民币汇率形成和管理机制。

The RMB effective exchange rate once appeared to keep on appreciating sharply during RMB exchange rate formation mechanism transferring from pegged to the US dollar to peg to a basket of currencies, while the RMB exchange rate management system changed from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate. The continued appreciation result in the overvalued of RMB exchange rate. After the reformation of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism which occurred on August 11 in 2015, the RMB effective exchange rate continued to depreciate. This depreciation resulted directly from the expending capital outflows caused by a large outflow of hot money, but it is also a reasonable correction to the early overvalued of RMB exchange rate. The depreciation spaces of RMB effective exchange rate and the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar are limited, because the overvalued of RMB exchange rate has been corrected completely. But there is still substantial depreciation for the exchange rates of RMB to euro and Japanese Yen and the currencies of surrounding countries. The policy of RMB exchange rate should be maintaining the exchange rate stable at a reasonable level around the equilibrium exchange rate, and it is necessary to further improve the formation and management mechanism of RMB exchange rate.