中国经济增长的动力:研究新进展和转换路径

The Motive Force of China's Economic Growth:the Research of New Progress and Transformation

经济增长动力分为需求拉动力和供给推动力两大系统。在需求动力方面,消费、投资、出口"三驾马车"对中国经济增长的主导存在一定的阶段性交替,未来经济增长主要依靠内需特别是消费需求。供给动力主要包括要素供给、结构供给和制度供给等推动力。新常态经济增长仍要从需求和供给双侧发力,既要扩大国内需求、发挥消费的基础性作用,又要抓住结构调整的重要契机,加速要素升级,推动创新发展,以制度改革增强长期经济增长动力。

Economic growth motive force could be divided into the motive force of expanding demand and the drive of supply. For the demand motivation part, the three aspects that are consumption, investment, export dominate China＇s economic growth respectively in different stages. The economic growth in the coming future relies mainly on do- mestic demand, especially consumer demand. Supply motive force mainly includes the supplies in factor, structure and system. The new normal economic growth still needs contribution from either the demand or supply. Therefore, we not only need to expand domestic demand, play the basic role of consumption, but also seize the opportuity for structural adjustment to accelerate the upgrading of factors and to promote innovation, and to strengthen the long-term economic growth through institutional reform.