LUTI模型的概念结构、实现方法及发展趋势

Overview of Urban Land-use/Transport Interaction Model:Origin, Techniques and Future

回顾了LUTI模型概念、起源和发展过程,对模型的一般架构和实现技术方法进行了系统的总结分析,在此基础上讨论了LUTI模型发展所面临的问题与挑战。研究发现,作为模拟城市空间发展过程常用的数学模型,LUTI模型是基于城市土地利用-交通相互作用规律,从社会经济活动空间分布的角度模拟城市空间演化过程。根据LUTI模型,城市空间演化过程是土地利用系统和交通系统不断的相互作用过程,其中交通模型根据城市活动空间分布及交通设施评价城市交通状况,而土地利用模型根据交通可达性和其他影响因素预测城市空间发展趋势;城市发展过程中城市活动空间分布在交通的作用下发生改变后,将改变城市房租、交通状况等因素,进而再次导致城市活动空间分布随之变化,如此不断相互作用、趋于平衡。LUTI在国外被广泛用于城市空间政策检验、辅助决策。就LUTI模型的发展而言,已有研究更多地侧重要解决的现实问题,而对模型的理论结构关注较少,导致模型的发展滞后于城市的发展。应用中面临的诸多问题要求LUTI模型理论上的进一步突破。将LUTI的工作原理植入城市研究的背景中,旨在让读者对LUTI模型原理、结构、实现技术及面临的问题有深入了解,推进LUTI模型在中国应用与发展。

China is experiencing the rapid transformation of urbanization, with mass population migration float- ing from rural provincial areas to large cities, which brings huge challenge for the authority to foster sustain- able urban development. While right spatial policies always play important roles in urban development, power- ful tools are needed to validate the empirical policies by modelling the urban spatial evolution process. Land-use/Transport Interaction Model （LUTI） has been used frequently in urban policy-making and scenario testing in developed countries. LUTI model are often used to answer questions like ＂what impacts on urban space could a certain amount of floorspace development in a certain zone bring？ How would urban activity spa- tial pattern change if a highway be developed？＂ i.e. ＂what-if＇ questions. It has been proved especially useful in modelling urban spatial development process and developing sustainable policies. Notwithstanding the use- fulness, the LUTI model deals with cities only thrills in developed countries, with rare application to rapidly growing cities of developing countries, especially China and related applications are also lacking. This article introduces the concept and origin of LUTI, reviews various LUTI models, model components and simulation techniques, and discusses the model strengths, weaknesses, challenges and development trends. According to LUTI theory, urban space is composed of two main parts, i.e. land use and transport. Urban development pro- cess is the interaction between urban land use and transport. The activity distribution （land use） along with land use policies and transport determine the accessibility of each zone and then the location of activities. A change in activity distribution causes the change of activity density or rent, and then accessibilities of zones are rebalanced. The process is repeated until the stopping criterion is met--the activity distribution difference be- tween two successive iterations is below a predefined value.Based on the review and discussion, the article ex- plores what contribution the model can make and how the model can be adjusted in China toward an urban policy modelling tool for decision makers. The challenges faced to develop the model theoretically are also discussed. The study is intended to extend the usage of LUTI models and promote the development in the discipline of Human Geography in China.