对第二个百年目标导向下的区域发展机遇与挑战的科学认知

Scientific Cognition of Opportunities and Challenges for Regional Development under “The Second One Hundred Year Goal” Target-Orientation

我国区域发展目标导向下的研究相对薄弱,导致长远和顶层的战略缺失或出现战略碎片化问题,表现出规划资源的浪费。针对这一问题,提出3类需要以目标导向为主、问题导向为补充的规划类型:长时间尺度规划、空间类规划、综合效益类规划。聚焦目标导向,需要着重分析未来区域发展面临的机遇与挑战。文章以资源环境承载力、地缘关系、科技创新与体制机制软环境、以及社会进步等4个稳定因素为主线,重点从以下几个方面讨论了区域发展机遇:新科技革命引发的产业革命重塑全球产业体系、"流空间"下全新的组织方式和世界经济格局重组、资源环境约束趋紧促进从工业文明转向生态文明、社会进步与消费层级提升引发区域发展转向社会公平与文化传承。区域发展面临的挑战包括发展机遇内涵的挑战、同类型区域的竞争以及未来的不确定性,最后对区域应对的策略进行了简短的讨论。

The research of target-orientation in China＇ s regional development is relatively weak, resulting as the absence of long-term and top-level strategy, fragmentation of strategy, and the dissipation of planning. It is from this point of view that this paper proposes 3 kinds of target- orientation planning： longterm scale planning resources, spatial planning resources, comprehensive planning. Focused on the target-orientation, it is necessary to analyze the opportunities and challenges for regional planning. Taking the 4 stable factors （resources and environment carrying capacity, geopolitical relations, scientific innovation and intangible infrastructure） as the mainline, this paper proposes 4 opportunities： new scientific and technological revolution, space of flow, ecological civilization, and social progress. This paper also proposes 3 challenges： the challenge of development opportunities connotation, competition in the same type of region, uncertainty in the future. Finally, this paper ends with a brief discussion on coping strategies of regional development.