城市规模扩展的环境与资源潜力协调度分析——以湖南省为例

Coordination Degree between Urban Development and Resources Potentials in Hunan Province

以湖南省为例,基于2000—2012年资源与环境综合容量发展现状,构建了城市规模扩展的资源与环境容量AHP综合评价体系,并利用资源—环境综合容量协调度模型,探讨城市规模扩展过程中资源综合容量与环境综合容量的水平以及二者的协调关系。结论如下:1湖南省的资源综合容量发展水平总体上呈现逐年上升的趋势;化学能源和土地资源的增长是湖南省资源容量发展的主要形式;而金属资源和水电资源对于资源容量的发展影响相对较小。2环境综合容量的变化波动性较强,但是总体上呈上升的趋势;主要受生态环境状态和生态环境压力的影响。生态环境状态的和生态环境压力的子系统的综合评价值的提高会促进环境综合容量的提升。3资源综合总量与环境综合容量系统的协调度是先上升后下降,呈倒U型变化,总体上两者的协调度发展水平不高,资源与环境综合容量系统的矛盾日益突出。

With the acceleration of urbanization and globalization of economy, the relationship between economy, resources,ecosystem and environment has attracted extensive attention. The sustainable development has been strongly restricted by resources reserves and environment capacity in Hunan Province. Based on data about environment development and resources reserves of Hunan Province from 2000 to 2012, the relationship between environment development and resources potentials was discussed in this study, which important for sustainability of development of economy, society, ecosystem and environment in Hunan Province. First, eighteen indexes of chemical energy source, metal resources, land resources and hydropower resources were used to characterize the level of resources reserves, and twenty indexes from environment state index, environment pressure index, environment governance index, the coordination of environment and society, and the coordination of environment and ecocnomy were selected to quantify environment capacity potential. The weights of indexes were determined using AHP based on entropy theory. Then comprehensive evaluation models were built to analyze the change of urban development level and water resources potential. At last, the model describing coordination degree between environment development potential and resources reserves was constructed and improved repeatedly to quantitatively evaluate the coordination relationship of Hunan Province. The study showed that：（1） Hunan Province＇s comprehensive capacity development level showed a rising trend year by year. Chemical energy and land resource growth is the main form of Hunan Province resources capacity development. The development of metal resources and hydropower resources have a relatively small impact on resources capacity development. （2） Comprehensive environmental capacity, which is mainly affected by ecological status and ecological pressure. Showed a strong degree of volatile, and a overall upward trend. The development of comprehensive evaluation system of ecological environment condition and ecological environment pressure value will accelerate the increase of comprehensive environmental capacity. （3） The coordination degree between resources reserves system and environment capacity system increased first and decreased afterwards. Generally, the coordination degree in the past years was low and the conflict between the two systems has been intensified.