技术前沿、技术追赶与经济赶超——从美国、日本两种典型后发增长模式谈起

Technological Frontier, Technological Catching up and Economic Surpassing——From the Discussion of Two Typical Late-development Patterns of America and Japan

后发国家对先发国家的经济赶超主要源于技术进步,其赶超成功的关键在于是否能够适时地将技术进步推进模式由技术追赶转换为技术前沿扩张。文章从美国、日本两国典型的后发经济增长历程谈起,认为后发国家在对先发国家技术差距收敛的过程中,即使能够无限趋近于前沿技术水平,但也无法通过技术追赶模式跨越后发经济赶超的"最后最小距离",技术前沿扩张才能够使后发国家实现真正的赶超。技术追赶和技术前沿是后发国家在经济赶超不同阶段中的两种技术进步推进模式,两者的转换和取舍都是为了促进全要素生产率的有效增长。研究技术进步的推进过程也是为了更好地探寻后发国家经济赶超的实现路径,因而文章采用Malmquist指数法,结合全要素生产率的增长动因,来构建基于技术前沿和技术追赶的经济赶超路径。

It is mainly due to technological progress that late-development countries surpass early-development countries in economy.The key to the success is whether they can switch technological progressing pattern from technological catching-up to technological fron-tier expanding appropriately. This paper is based on the typical late-development process of America and Japan. The viewpoint is that dur-ing the process of late-development countries shortening the technological gap with early-development ones, the＂last and minimum dis-tance＂cannot be stepped over through technological catching-up even if the technological level is infinitely close to the technological fron-tier of early-development countries. Technology frontier expanding can only make late-development countries to truly achieve surpassing.Technological catching up and technological frontier are two types of technological progressing patterns of late-development countries indifferent stages of economic surpassing. The conversion and choice between this two are all to promote the effective growth of total factorproductivity By studying the technological progressing pattern, we can seek for a better pathway for to late- development countries toachieve economic surpassing. Therefore, this paper, applying Malmquist index method combined with the growth motivation of total factorproductivity, builds a better pathway to achieve economic surpassing based on technological frontier and technological catching up.