淮北平原农业区耕地面积时空格局演变与驱动力分析

Spatial-temporal pattern evolution of cultivated land area and its driving forces of agricultural areas in Huaibei plain

【目的】探索安徽淮北平原农业区耕地面积的时空格局演变及其驱动力,为保障区域耕地资源可持续利用与管理提供科学依据。【方法】根据2000~2013年相关统计资料,采用耕地动态度、耕地指数及耕地重心模型对淮北平原农业区的耕地面积时空格局演变进行研究,并运用主成分分析法对其耕地面积时空格局演变的驱动力进行分析。【结果】(1)2000~2013年淮北平原农业区总耕地面积及其大部分县(区)耕地面积小幅减少,其余部分市辖区耕地面积有一定增加;(2)淮北平原农业区的耕地在空间上呈西多东少的分布格局,2000~2013年耕地重心总体上从西北向东南方向转移,但迁移幅度不明显,并未影响研究区西多东少的分布格局;(3)主成分分析结果表明淮北平原农业区耕地面积时空格局演变的主要驱动力为社会经济与城镇化、农业生产能力和灾变。【建议】加强现有耕地资源的保护力度,合理开发后备土地资源;依靠科技提升农业生产能力,完善土地管理政策,保障农户切身利益;控制人口数量,树立耕地资源危机意识。

【Objective】The present study explored spatial-temporal pattern evolution and its driving forces of agricultural areas in Huaibei plain, in order to provide scientific basis for sustainable utilization and management of cultivated land resources. 【Method】Based on the relevant statistical data from 2000 to 2013, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal pattern evolution of cultivated land acreage of agricultural areas in Huaibei plain, Anhui province. The main indexes included dynamic degree of cultivated land, cultivate land index and gravity center model of cultivated land. Then the driving forces in the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of cultivated land area were studied by principal component analysis. 【Result 】（ 1） Total cultivated land area in Huaibei plain and most counties（ district） decreased to a small extent during2000-2013, but cultivated land area in the rest parts increased.（2）The space distribution pattern of cultivated land area in the west was more than that in the east. The gravity center of cultivated land shifted from northwest to southeast during study period. But for the whole study area, the migration range was not large. And it did not affect the whole distribution pattern.（3）Principal component analysis showed that main driving forces were social economy and urbanization, capability of agricultural production and natural disasters. 【Suggestion】Following suggestions are proposed： strengthening the protection for existing cultivated land resources, rational development of reserve land resources; relying on science and technology to improve agricultural production capacity, improving land management policies to ensure the vital interests of farmers; controlling population and establishing the consciousness of cultivated land resources crisis.